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Prediction markets for Hyperscale

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10655

120

will ram prices go down by the end of 2027

Mar 21, 7:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.2%chance

143001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

60

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

231483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

835

By 2027, will Silicon Photonics based multi-chip packages be the main way that most data centres handle data and network traffic?

Feb 25, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.15%chance

25616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

960

Will the US enact a federal compute tax before 2030?

May 20, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.35%chance

5111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2027?

Jul 21, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.45%chance

659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028?

Jul 20, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.57%chance

346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

735

674

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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