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Prediction markets for IAS

At the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the IAU, be exactly 8?

Nov 23, 2:36 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

98.41%chance

186054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6280

767

Will Ian Nepomniachtchi ever become World Chess Champion?

Dec 25, 1:22 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

11.1%chance

172517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

776

Will "IABIED is on the NYT bestseller list" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 26, 11:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.69%chance

72104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2796

846

Will the French believe Intelligence Artificielle (IA) to be an existential risk, by 2030?

Sep 2, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

59.57%chance

271309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

942

Will IA wipe out humanity by the year 2100?

Sep 1, 2:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1%chance

101295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

148

Will "I enjoyed most of IABIED" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 17, 1:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.33%chance

5705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

922

By the end of 2026 will @ian finish our nft project?

Nov 30, 3:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.1%chance

3525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

684

Will "Contra Collier on IABIED" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 6:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.21%chance

2225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

991

Will Elon Musk be hyperstitioned into a God by EOY2200 (cc @iamgingertrash)?

Dec 19, 12:33 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

52.4%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will the IAU change the definition of a planet by 2040?

Feb 24, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

27

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

Lettre de motivation IA : une solution moderne pour les entreprises et les professionnels en France

Dec 6, 11:54 AMDec 7, 11:54 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which of Orcus, Salacia, Gonggong and Sedna will be formally recognised as dwarf planets by the IAU in 2034?

Apr 30, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Orcus

Salacia

Gonggong

Sedna

50

50

50

50

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