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Prediction markets for IAS

Will Ian Nepomniachtchi ever become World Chess Champion?

Dec 25, 1:22 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

11.1%chance

172517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

776

Will the French believe Intelligence Artificielle (IA) to be an existential risk, by 2030?

Sep 2, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

59.57%chance

271309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

942

Will Hachette v. Internet Archive be heard by the Supreme Court?

Mar 25, 4:26 AMJan 1, 1:00 PM

20.23%chance

22711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

806

Will IA wipe out humanity by the year 2100?

Sep 1, 2:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2%chance

9584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

798

158

Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?

Jul 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.04%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

128

Will Ian Proulx (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 28, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.07%chance

474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

80

Will "years lost due to microplastic load" be lower than "years lost due to air pollution load" by US'ians in the 2020s?

Sep 14, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.93%chance

565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

104

Will Elon Musk be hyperstitioned into a God by EOY2200 (cc @iamgingertrash)?

Dec 19, 12:33 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

38.23%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will more than 2 people from the Good Judgment Project or IARPA be at Manifest 2025?

Jun 18, 2:14 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

46.68%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Detroit LVT: Will the assessments pass an independent IAAO ratio study? (2028)

Oct 13, 4:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

45.27%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

182

Will the IAU change the definition of a planet by 2040?

Feb 24, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

27

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

Which of Orcus, Salacia, Gonggong and Sedna will be formally recognised as dwarf planets by the IAU in 2034?

Apr 30, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Orcus

Salacia

Gonggong

Sedna

50

50

50

50

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