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Prediction markets for IBM
What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030
Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
230123790
OptionProbability
20
13
11
11
11
10
9
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026?
Nov 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19459921
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
64
50
30
25
21
20
18
11
11
11
11
10
5
5
5
4
OptionProbability
32
23
18
14
5
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
4313583
OptionProbability
54
16
16
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
42
9
8
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Mar 18, 9:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
632592
OptionProbability
29
17
16
14
7
5
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
Jan 15, 8:20 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
34%chance
462061
OptionVotes
1440
644
OptionProbability
75
9
7
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
30
19
18
15
14
3
1
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.38%chance
191406
OptionVotes
1014
906
Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
Apr 8, 8:58 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
6118
OptionProbability
26
14
13
7
7
6
6
6
6
6