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Prediction markets for IBM
What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030
Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
210103496
OptionProbability
17
14
11
11
11
10
5
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
29
25
16
15
5
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
3912295
OptionProbability
72
12
8
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
46
18
6
6
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Mar 18, 9:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
562516
OptionProbability
29
18
16
15
9
6
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
Jan 15, 8:20 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
39.41%chance
431684
OptionVotes
1292
730
OptionProbability
28
24
19
17
8
3
1
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.38%chance
191406
OptionVotes
1014
906
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Oct 8, 10:22 PMDec 23, 6:59 AM
9647
OptionProbability
19
16
12
12
10
8
7
6
4
4
2
OptionProbability
68
59
52
51
50
50
50
48
48
46
41
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
Nov 28, 11:21 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM
6253
OptionProbability
15
14
10
10
9
9
8
6
6
6
6