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Prediction markets for Identity

When Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male

Jul 19, 5:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.16%chance

536360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

851

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.56%chance

553780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

297

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

781

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.94%chance

291547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

271

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will Banksy's identity become public and beyond doubt by 2030?

Jan 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70%chance

21992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

934

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?

Dec 22, 10:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.52%chance

18701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

916

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Jan 21, 6:14 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

31.95%chance

24698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

900

When will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven?

Dec 28, 4:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8260

OptionProbability

2067

2026

2050

2030

2040

31

24

17

14

14

Uniswap will require users to verify their identity to use it by 2030

Apr 22, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.94%chance

698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

80

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

What was the botanical identity of soma–haoma?

Jul 29, 2:22 AMAug 5, 6:59 AM

17

OptionProbability

Ephedra

Nelumbo nucifera

Cannabis sativa

Cynanchum acidum

Peganum harmala

Sugarcane

Fly-agaric

Psilocybe cubensis

Ergot

Other

60

60

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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