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Prediction markets for Identity

When Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male

Jul 19, 5:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.16%chance

536360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

851

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.16%chance

422933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

676

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.51%chance

261747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

776

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.26%chance

241232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

772

Will Banksy's identity become public and beyond doubt by 2030?

Jan 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70%chance

21992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

934

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?

Dec 22, 10:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.52%chance

18701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

916

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Jan 21, 6:14 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

31.95%chance

24698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

900

When will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven?

Dec 28, 4:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3120

OptionProbability

2067

2050

2030

2040

2026

37

21

17

17

9

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

What was the botanical identity of soma–haoma?

Jul 29, 2:22 AMAug 5, 6:59 AM

17

OptionProbability

Ephedra

Nelumbo nucifera

Cannabis sativa

Cynanchum acidum

Peganum harmala

Sugarcane

Fly-agaric

Psilocybe cubensis

Ergot

Other

60

60

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Instance

Weights

Persona

33

33

33

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