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Prediction markets for Identity

When Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male

Jul 19, 5:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.07%chance

536410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

819

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

43.75%chance

584071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

305

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.88%chance

321928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

291

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

781

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.18%chance

51094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

780

Will Banksy's identity become public and beyond doubt by 2030?

Jan 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70%chance

21992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

934

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?

Dec 22, 10:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.52%chance

18701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

916

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Jan 21, 6:14 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

31.95%chance

24698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

900

Will the identity of the Somerton Man be positively identified and verified by EOY 2030?

Mar 4, 5:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.43%chance

6659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

274

57

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

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