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Prediction markets for Identity

When Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male

Jul 19, 5:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.16%chance

536360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

851

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.2%chance

573846

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

322

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

781

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.82%chance

311668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

281

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will Banksy's identity become public and beyond doubt by 2030?

Jan 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70%chance

21992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

934

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?

Dec 22, 10:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.52%chance

18701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

916

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Jan 21, 6:14 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

31.95%chance

24698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

900

Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

3168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Will the identity of the Somerton Man be positively identified and verified by EOY 2030?

Mar 4, 5:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.18%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

84

Will the Identity Verification market have grown faster than Digital Payments by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.71%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

80

What was the botanical identity of soma–haoma?

Jul 29, 2:22 AMAug 5, 6:59 AM

17

OptionProbability

Ephedra

Nelumbo nucifera

Cannabis sativa

Cynanchum acidum

Peganum harmala

Sugarcane

Fly-agaric

Psilocybe cubensis

Ergot

Other

60

60

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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