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Prediction markets for Identity

When Aella has a child, the identity of the father will be a straight male

Jul 19, 5:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.16%chance

536360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

851

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.13%chance

412903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

785

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.51%chance

261747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

776

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.26%chance

241232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

772

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?

Dec 22, 10:21 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.52%chance

18701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

916

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Jan 21, 6:14 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

31.95%chance

24698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

900

Will Banksy's identity become public and beyond doubt by 2030?

Jan 7, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.78%chance

18350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

1004

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

60

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

Can you create a market, state you won't trade in it, and then trade in an identical market?

Aug 16, 9:15 AMDec 31, 9:58 AM

52.21%chance

480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

96

Discourse: Will everybody be disappointed with Banksy's identity, when revealed?

Jan 7, 1:34 PMJan 30, 10:59 PM

59.02%chance

112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

60

42

What was the botanical identity of soma–haoma?

Jul 29, 2:22 AMAug 5, 6:59 AM

17

OptionProbability

Ephedra

Nelumbo nucifera

Cannabis sativa

Cynanchum acidum

Peganum harmala

Sugarcane

Fly-agaric

Psilocybe cubensis

Ergot

Other

60

60

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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