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Prediction markets for IDEO

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

Which ideological shifts will the Democratic party make by the 2026 midterms? (Resolves to poll)

Nov 18, 11:09 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

241895

OptionProbability

Pro-rule of law

Anti-tariffs

Moderate

Pro-voter ID

Pro-climate

Economically populist

Pro-freedom of speech

Anti-immigration

Pro-nationalist

Pro-Palestine

Anti-big-business

Anti-establishment

Socially conservative

Socially liberal

Elitist

Pro-Israel

77

69

58

56

53

50

45

43

43

30

28

27

26

26

23

14

Major news report of ideological filtering of would-be resident in Praxis city project (before 2027)

Sep 15, 7:21 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

72.55%chance

7789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

96

Will Manifold be taken over by any other ideological group before 2028?

Nov 3, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

22432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

127

Will Elon Musk try to use an AI model to sway people towards a political ideology before 2031?

Jan 13, 12:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40%chance

19349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

89

Will "The main way I've seen people turn ideologica..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 25, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Ideo Stock

May 10, 11:16 PMMay 11, 10:59 PM

5113

OptionProbability

NO

YES

119

102

Will "Parkinson's Law and the Ideology of Statistics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 6, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.57%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

41

which disco elysium ideology do you align with most?

Apr 13, 10:10 PM

70

Is Zionism a racist ideology?

Jan 3, 9:31 PM

340

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