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Prediction markets for IMA

Will Anthropic release an image generation model in 2026?

Jan 27, 11:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.09%chance

559064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

732

Will Anthropic's first image generation capability be based on an in-house image model?

Feb 3, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.52%chance

253608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

811

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

89.81%chance

292580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

768

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

61105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

512

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

57%chance

11831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

872

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

Jan 2, 8:42 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

37.68%chance

11535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Twitter feature: can adjust image order on the website on PC, by mid 2026

Feb 22, 5:10 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.84%chance

9152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

486

479

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.06%chance

8118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

571

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