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Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.45%chance

145328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2175

460

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

89.81%chance

292580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

768

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025?

Jun 30, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.31%chance

71679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

440

Will a major media outlet publish an exposé on Oprah Winfrey's business practices and public image by December 31, 2025?

Sep 17, 6:16 PMDec 31, 7:20 PM

16.02%chance

101632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2289

437

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.86%chance

51250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11250

8889

By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using mind reading to control the generation.

Aug 25, 9:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.08%chance

201068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

847

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

Jan 2, 8:42 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

37.68%chance

11535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Will AI finally generate an acceptable image of "Peter Thiel making out with, cuddling with, and incubating an egg together with a gay penguin" by 2025?

Jan 5, 4:48 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

86.03%chance

14367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

921

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