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Prediction markets for IMA

Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026?

Dec 30, 6:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.41%chance

12222971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

420

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33%chance

134578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

89.81%chance

292580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

768

By 2026, the SOTA in image generation will be using mind reading to control the generation.

Aug 25, 9:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.17%chance

19968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

864

Will a major media outlet publish an exposé on Oprah Winfrey's business practices and public image by December 31, 2025?

Sep 17, 6:16 PMDec 31, 7:20 PM

28.05%chance

8820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1601

624

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

Jan 2, 8:42 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

37.68%chance

11535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Will AI finally generate an acceptable image of "Peter Thiel making out with, cuddling with, and incubating an egg together with a gay penguin" by 2025?

Jan 5, 4:48 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

84.79%chance

13267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

938

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025?

Jun 30, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

956

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