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Top stories

India Names Ex-RBI Chief Urjit Patel IMF Executive Director

India Names Ex-RBI Chief Urjit Patel IMF Executive Director

Authors

3

1 year ago

France’s Lombard Sticks to 5.4% Deficit Goal, Downplays IMF Risk

France’s Lombard Sticks to 5.4% Deficit Goal, Downplays IMF Risk

Authors

16

1 year ago

Economists Warn Reeves’ UK Debt Path Risks 1976-Style IMF Bailout

Economists Warn Reeves’ UK Debt Path Risks 1976-Style IMF Bailout

Authors

15

1 year ago

Natural Resources

DR Congo and Ukraine Advance Critical Mineral Development With US Investment, Trump Support, KoBold Metals, and Dobra Lithium Tender

Authors

6

1 year ago

Brazil Lowers 2025-26 Inflation and GDP Forecasts; IMF Sees Panama GDP Growth at 4.5% Supported by Spending Cuts Plan

Authors

4

1 year ago

Rachel Reeves’ UK Faces 1970s-Style Debt Crisis With £50 Billion Shortfall, Borrowing Costs Above Greece, and Possible IMF Bailout

Authors

10

1 year ago

Thailand Q2 GDP Exceeds Forecast as Pre-Tariff Export Rush Clouds Outlook

Authors

14

1 year ago

UK's Global GDP Share Falls to 2.1% in 2025; India, Indonesia Rise; US Stable; China Projected to Lead by 2075

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for IMF

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

787

What will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?

Nov 20, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13216102

OptionProbability

Between 2% and 4%

Between 4% and 6%

Between 0% and 2%

< -2%

Between -2% and 0%

More than 6%

Other

42

35

10

4

4

4

0

Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?

Feb 18, 8:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

36.4%chance

1319418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1808

935

Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

May 5, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

308402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4297

15

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

223816

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

55

54

53

49

44

43

38

36

31

15

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.

Jun 30, 4:51 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

41.59%chance

172119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]

Aug 31, 2:30 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

39.63%chance

131652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

810

Will China collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)

Apr 26, 2:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

11875

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

20

Will 120 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day before 2030?

Jul 8, 6:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.85%chance

10493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

769

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

[IMF] Insured Mana Fund

Apr 25, 11:50 AM

00

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