IMPACT AI News

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Apr 25, 2:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.51%chance

14027140

OptionVotes

YES

4793

842

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

YES

10119

734

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

83.48%chance

743078

OptionVotes

YES

2254

594

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?

Nov 24, 7:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

191221

OptionProbability

Other

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Rich Sutton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Paul Christiano

Demis Hassabis

Geoffrey Hinton

Sam Altman

Robert Miles

Yann LeCun

Marc Andreessen

Larry Summers

Émile Torres

Joe Biden

Timnit Gebru

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

24695

OptionVotes

YES

1131

907

Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?

Jan 19, 1:54 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

75.13%chance

15350

OptionVotes

YES

1071

955

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Nov 29, 11:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15338

OptionProbability

Intentful bodily care (sleep, water, and light exercise)

Careful tracking of burnout and allocating time and resources to explicit relaxation

Other

Stress less about general image and status

get enough sleep

write note files/.txt files/gdocs/other single document to describe what you hope to get out of each experiment, before you run it

seek worst case bounds, but distrust them

Mark's post on how to do theoretical research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbFGRRWPwxBwjwknY/how-to-do-theoretical-research-a-personal-perspective-1

Do more experiments. Develop research intimacy and intuition

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Mar 8, 11:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

23328

OptionProbability

Robotics

Biotech

Finance

Energy

Impact of AI: Will the number of lawyers in the U.S. decrease by 2030?

May 3, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

10315

OptionVotes

YES

133

Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?

Jan 7, 3:08 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22%chance

12179

OptionVotes

YES

219

118

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

IMPACT AI News

Prediction markets for IMPACT AI

Prediction markets for IMPACT AI

Prediction markets for IMPACT AI

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Impact of AI: Will the number of lawyers in the U.S. decrease by 2030?

Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

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