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Top stories

NASA and IBM Launch Surya AI Model With 16% More Accurate Solar Storm Forecasts and Two-Hour Advance Warning

NASA and IBM Launch Surya AI Model With 16% More Accurate Solar Storm Forecasts and Two-Hour Advance Warning

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for IMPACT

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

10%chance

130486806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.93%chance

10423743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9935

742

Will NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?

Feb 8, 8:14 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

1.99%chance

5322135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7012

143

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

12.23%chance

15111300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

1393

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

86.63%chance

825173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2598

534

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.36%chance

603396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1431

907

Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition?

Oct 21, 12:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.81%chance

351744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1748

854

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

24890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

835

Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?

Jan 19, 1:54 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

75.13%chance

15350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

955

By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.53%chance

14263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

952

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

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