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Prediction markets for in
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.05%chance
433011800090
OptionVotes
25976
17882
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
85.27%chance
26482352648
OptionVotes
13120
1557
OptionVotes
11876
8833
OptionProbability
29
14
10
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM
96.61%chance
1281857206
OptionVotes
534089
18748
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM
3.8%chance
4301342179
OptionVotes
503441
19890
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.34%chance
497762100
OptionVotes
26665
3755
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
592573784
OptionVotes
3255
1407
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63%chance
342228245
OptionVotes
2044
1314
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
51.23%chance
369133315
OptionVotes
2209
2181
OptionProbability
60
39
1
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM
48.92%chance
6123558
OptionVotes
49884
48622



