Incentiv News

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.94%chance

157585652

OptionVotes

YES

17654

1109

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

1545

648

Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term?

Jan 21, 1:45 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

67.75%chance

312025

OptionVotes

YES

1450

690

Will GME reach $30 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.55%chance

42002

OptionVotes

YES

1548

646

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will GME reach $40 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.82%chance

71352

OptionVotes

YES

1399

715

Will I have a "Successful Week", based on the objective scoring criteria below? (2 February 2026)

Feb 2, 10:53 AMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

76.02%chance

121230

OptionVotes

YES

1780

562

Will LBJ #5 by Robert Caro come out before 2030?

Jul 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.02%chance

10779

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Oct 13, 3:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.22%chance

14465

OptionVotes

YES

1122

939

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

999

995

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

YES

1084

923

Should creators support edge-case insider trading to incentivize clarification of edge-cases?

Aug 22, 9:22 AMApr 15, 9:59 PM

100

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This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term?

Will GME reach $30 before the end of 2026?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will GME reach $40 before the end of 2026?

Will I have a "Successful Week", based on the objective scoring criteria below? (2 February 2026)

Will LBJ #5 by Robert Caro come out before 2030?

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Should creators support edge-case insider trading to incentivize clarification of edge-cases?

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