Incentiv News

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.94%chance

157585652

OptionVotes

YES

17654

1109

Will I reach a chess.com rating of 2600 before 2026?

Dec 31, 10:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.1%chance

2712165

OptionVotes

YES

12207

241

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Dec 13, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

414378

OptionVotes

YES

3336

349

Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term?

Jan 21, 1:45 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

68.89%chance

301937

OptionVotes

YES

1488

672

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Oct 10, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.06%chance

201155

OptionVotes

YES

1146

886

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

91071

OptionVotes

YES

2025

494

Will LBJ #5 by Robert Caro come out before 2030?

Jul 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.02%chance

10779

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Oct 13, 3:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.4%chance

13415

OptionVotes

YES

1072

955

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

999

995

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

1000

980

Should creators support edge-case insider trading to incentivize clarification of edge-cases?

Aug 22, 9:22 AMApr 15, 9:59 PM

100

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This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Will I reach a chess.com rating of 2600 before 2026?

Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

Will LBJ #5 by Robert Caro come out before 2030?

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Should creators support edge-case insider trading to incentivize clarification of edge-cases?

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