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Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.66%chance

22324701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3367

1404

Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?

May 29, 8:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

5011771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

720

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.77%chance

1710641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18181

5500

Will a country implement Universal Basic Income as a permanent policy by 2030?

Mar 4, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.61%chance

535873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

945

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Apr 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57.03%chance

413354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

444

Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?

May 26, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.19%chance

372332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

922

Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?

Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM

64.6%chance

51548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

64.68%chance

391435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

889

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

864

Will any EU country implement a universal basic income before 2030?

Apr 19, 8:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.53%chance

10183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

957

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 29, 4:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.01%chance

462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

691

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