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Prediction markets for Inco

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.54%chance

37232372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2905

1797

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.06%chance

22525287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3118

1930

Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?

May 29, 8:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.34%chance

5011821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

770

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.82%chance

1810663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18203

5494

Will a country implement Universal Basic Income as a permanent policy by 2030?

Mar 4, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.61%chance

535873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

945

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Apr 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

62%chance

433615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1463

384

Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?

May 26, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.19%chance

372332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

922

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

61.26%chance

421521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

804

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

864

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will an income be imputed to my co-parent before end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 29, 4:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.01%chance

462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

691

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