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Prediction markets for Inco

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.58%chance

21522356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4006

684

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.23%chance

4017224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21518

5099

Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?

Apr 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.95%chance

907908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1967

1231

Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?

May 29, 8:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.6%chance

372307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

642

Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?

May 26, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

342132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

871

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

65.1%chance

381429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

900

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Apr 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

32.27%chance

331426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

910

Will labor’s share of income decline in 2025?

Jun 3, 8:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

58.33%chance

13719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

857

Will any country implement a universal basic income by 2026?

Oct 14, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

24.83%chance

22717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

897

Will any EU country implement a universal basic income before 2030?

Apr 19, 8:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.53%chance

10183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

957

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

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