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Prediction markets for Income Tax

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

Jun 14, 2:54 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1.37%chance

2013318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8688

120

Trump eliminates federal income tax in 2026?

Jan 25, 2:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

1710002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7994

125

Will there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?

May 20, 9:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.85%chance

221525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

529

At what income level will the marginal tax rate reach 37% in 2030?

Nov 8, 3:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4693

OptionProbability

Above $1,000,000

Above $800,000

Above $900,000

Above $500,000

Above $600,000

Above $700,000

Above $400,000

Above $300,000

Above $100,000

Above $200,000

Above $0

64

55

55

50

50

50

37

28

14

14

11

Will income tax be eliminated by 2040?

Jan 22, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.94%chance

15612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1429

938

Will the US continue to use a Standard Deduction in determining income tax by end of 2030?

Jan 22, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.6%chance

12361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

941

Will Brazilian Congress pass any income tax reform until the end of 2027?

Jul 29, 11:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

72.05%chance

8129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

85

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2023?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

79.18%chance

2101

OptionProbability

NO

YES

201

35

Will Trump administration eliminate federal income tax on gambling winnings?

Dec 12, 8:40 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

25%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

What will the US top 1% post-tax/transfer income share be in 2025?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

72.98%chance

175

OptionProbability

NO

YES

175

43

What will the marginal US federal income tax rate on $1M taxable income be in 2033?

Jan 8, 6:07 PMJan 15, 6:07 PM

39.43%chance

330

OptionProbability

YES

NO

316

306

Top US income tax bracket in 2050

Apr 7, 3:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.33%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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