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Prediction markets for Increase

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42130742

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?

Jan 1, 3:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.16%chance

13679990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2730

367

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Apr 25, 11:16 AMDec 31, 11:47 AM

27.7%chance

9615260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9665

3727

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.56%chance

643010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

945

Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.34%chance

322849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2574

1507

The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate.

Sep 30, 3:40 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

37.04%chance

141850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

599

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.88%chance

221565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

1284

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

Aug 12, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.2%chance

9263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

965

Does rapamyacin significantly increase the lifespan of dogs?

Dec 26, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

69.61%chance

13183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

990

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