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Prediction markets for InCred

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38121725

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

22

21

19

18

15

Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?

Dec 3, 4:49 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

94.47%chance

32588639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4132

242

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.85%chance

5923504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23640

4694

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.06%chance

2313941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14715

7254

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75%chance

127439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17321

5773

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.31%chance

163092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3237

737

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37%chance

642960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

895

Trump's approval rating increases by end of January 2026?

Nov 20, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

30.4%chance

151316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1513

661

Britons' pride in British history increases by 2026?

Aug 12, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

7193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

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