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Prediction markets for InCred

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

21

19

19

18

15

Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?

Dec 3, 4:49 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.8%chance

32275817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1988

503

Will S&P 500 increase in 2025?

Dec 31, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

74.74%chance

16560204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

581

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.23%chance

4017224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21518

5099

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

167337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14113

7510

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?

Jun 9, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.64%chance

233649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

857

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.41%chance

673036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1458

1072

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37%chance

642960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

895

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

Does rapamyacin significantly increase the lifespan of dogs?

Dec 26, 3:41 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

71%chance

12163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

970

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