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Prediction markets for Indeed

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.74%chance

4671140701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11046

8127

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2826587

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

95

67

26

15

10

8

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.85%chance

1423446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30273

3309

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1918907

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

<155

23

21

18

13

9

9

4

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2018339

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

18

11

7

6

6

5

4

Will Greenland become independent from Denmark before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:55 PMJan 2, 12:59 PM

19.6%chance

9014761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2212

1939

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2113569

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

38

35

9

7

3

3

3

3

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

798539

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

51

32

14

2

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3149

2724

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

35.01%chance

226976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13625

7340

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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