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Prediction markets for Indeed

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.71%chance

4711143855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11756

7379

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3237360

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

95

60

17

10

7

4

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.04%chance

1723720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29965

3343

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2420071

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

<155

29

21

19

11

7

7

4

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2218434

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2714364

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

Meta

33

31

20

5

3

3

3

2

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.58%chance

13613104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

711

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

799415

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

58

30

11

1

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3149

2724

👍👎 Trump Approval Rating [Market Index]

Feb 16, 12:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.11%chance

111307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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