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Prediction markets for Indeed

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.71%chance

4801149999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10362

8973

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4697209

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 225

Above 200

Above 250

100

86

6

3

2

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18571901

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

54

39

2

2

1

1

1

1

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5168430

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

64

14

13

4

2

1

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3134079

OptionProbability

40-50%

30-40%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

26

24

18

12

6

4

4

3

2

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.25%chance

1828544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29618

3383

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.95%chance

13613497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

685

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010689

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

31

8

1

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3139

2774

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

104587

OptionProbability

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

41

28

11

4

4

4

4

4

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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