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Prediction markets for Indeed

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.7%chance

4761148952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10695

8544

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3659192

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

100

70

14

9

9

4

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3632789

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

160-165

155-160

<155

32

30

12

11

7

5

2

1

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.18%chance

1826374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31489

3182

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7625378

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

Other

44

32

15

2

2

2

2

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2418649

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

<10%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

20

16

10

7

7

6

5

4

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.44%chance

13613445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

662

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010689

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

31

8

1

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3139

2774

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74072

OptionProbability

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

41

26

13

4

4

4

4

4

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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