Independent Commission News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

86.69%chance

171725

OptionVotes

YES

2552

392

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will independent Alex Dyson defeat Liberal Dan Tehan in the seat of Wannon Victoria in the upcoming federal election.

Mar 14, 4:32 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

1%chance

51077

OptionVotes

YES

995

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Dec 17, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7792

OptionProbability

Automatic Voter Registration Act

Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

Automatic Voter Registration

Early voting

Mail-in voting

Banning Super PACs

Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

Public Financing for Candidates

Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

Ranked-Choice Voting

Approval Voting

Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

Compulsory voting

Democrats control Senate in 2030?

Jun 8, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.94%chance

8147

OptionVotes

YES

120

La Jolla an independent city before 2032?

May 4, 2:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.01%chance

550

OptionVotes

YES

125

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Mar 18, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

150

Which US 3rd party wins the presidency first?

Jul 9, 4:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

345

OptionProbability

Working Families Party

Other

Libertarian Party

No Labels

American Communist Party

Democratic Socialists of America

American Solidarity Party

America Party (Elon)

American Capitalist Party

Constitution Party

Forward Party

Green Party

Independent Commission News

Prediction markets for Independent Commission

Prediction markets for Independent Commission

Prediction markets for Independent Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will independent Alex Dyson defeat Liberal Dan Tehan in the seat of Wannon Victoria in the upcoming federal election.

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Democrats control Senate in 2030?

La Jolla an independent city before 2032?

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Which US 3rd party wins the presidency first?

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