Independent Group News

Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?

Sep 23, 1:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.51%chance

2931047

OptionVotes

YES

2125

819

Is China’s LVA Surgery a legitimate treatment for Alzheimer’s?

Nov 23, 6:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.37%chance

4429552

OptionVotes

YES

29403

3726

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.76%chance

10518956

OptionVotes

YES

15777

4360

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

1664

601

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Apr 29, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5511624

OptionProbability

Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)

Loss of synchronism

Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources

Low or insufficient inertia

Battery storage

Renewables made the grid less stable

Never found root cause

Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)

Bad weather

The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)

Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)

It's declared a cyber attack

Cyber attack & Russia-funded

Cyber attack & independent group

"Intern plugged wrong cable"

Cyber attack & USA-funded

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.71%chance

243712

OptionVotes

YES

2620

382

Will ivermectin be proven to be a superconducter by new years 2026

Aug 29, 9:18 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1.36%chance

141729

OptionVotes

YES

1795

946

Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?

Dec 24, 4:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25%chance

21843

OptionVotes

YES

1226

893

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

Aug 5, 6:05 PMNov 5, 6:54 PM

16.82%chance

18779

OptionVotes

YES

1162

946

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

YES

372

367

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

YES

1249

801

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

YES

1027

981

Independent Group News

Prediction markets for Independent Group

Prediction markets for Independent Group

Prediction markets for Independent Group

Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?

Is China’s LVA Surgery a legitimate treatment for Alzheimer’s?

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

Will ivermectin be proven to be a superconducter by new years 2026

Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

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