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Prediction markets for Index

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.97%chance

4841156853

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11805

7332

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4797480

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 225

Above 200

Above 250

100

94

6

3

2

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19281731

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Other

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

46

43

6

2

1

1

1

0

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6475919

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

66

19

6

4

2

1

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3234676

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

33

23

14

13

6

4

4

3

2

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2507

2431

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010795

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

30

8

2

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3139

2774

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

257836

OptionProbability

Compute Desk

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

Other

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

46

21

10

8

5

2

2

2

2

👍👎 Trump Approval Rating [Market Index]

Feb 16, 12:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.38%chance

141442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

645

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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