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Prediction markets for Index

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.38%chance

4791149069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10811

8402

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3768844

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

100

65

6

6

5

4

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3934507

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

31

26

20

7

7

6

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3133892

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

70-80%

10-20%

≥80%

<10%

26

25

17

12

7

5

4

3

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8227119

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Meta

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

42

37

13

2

2

1

1

1

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2507

2431

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010689

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

31

8

1

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

177883

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3139

2774

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84272

OptionProbability

Silicon Data

Ornn

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

44

24

12

4

4

4

4

4

👍👎 Trump Approval Rating [Market Index]

Feb 16, 12:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.11%chance

111307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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