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Prediction markets for Index

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.85%chance

4761148574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10385

8942

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3441256

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

96

80

20

12

7

4

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3228604

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

160-165

<155

155-160

29

26

17

11

9

6

2

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2318485

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

19

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2914664

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Other

34

30

22

5

3

2

2

2

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

799415

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

58

30

11

1

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3149

2724

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Apr 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73322

OptionProbability

Ornn

Silicon Data

SemiAnalysis

SquareTower

Hyperbolic

Compute Exchange

Global Compute Index

Other

34

25

17

5

5

5

5

5

👍👎 Trump Approval Rating [Market Index]

Feb 16, 12:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.11%chance

111307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%

May 3, 10:21 PMMay 13, 8:30 AM

30.52%chance

9619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1786

815

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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