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Prediction markets for Index

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.71%chance

4711143855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11756

7379

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3235191

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

95

60

17

7

5

3

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2419939

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

≥185

180-185

155-160

<155

28

21

18

11

9

8

4

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2218434

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2714364

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

Meta

33

31

20

5

3

3

3

2

@bens Shame Index (BSI)

Oct 7, 4:03 AMNov 20, 5:46 PM

2911502

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2507

2431

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

799415

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

58

30

11

1

@Bayesian Shame Index (BNSI)

Oct 24, 1:05 AM

167833

OptionProbability

YES

NO

3149

2724

👍👎 Trump Approval Rating [Market Index]

Feb 16, 12:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.11%chance

111307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

Drama Index Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 3:06 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10872

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1268

1220

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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