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Prediction markets for India Global

How many predictions did the FT writers get wrong for 2025?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

53117

OptionProbability

7

8

6

9 or more

2

3

4

5

0

1

40

39

8

5

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

61.99%chance

562124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

806

Will there be major global lockdowns before 2031?

Apr 14, 4:52 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.91%chance

8640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

140

Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.9%chance

10339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

By the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?

Nov 26, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.86%chance

6199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

When will the first RISUG procedure become commercially available?

Jun 30, 1:25 PMDec 30, 2:21 PM

190

OptionProbability

2035 or later

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

19

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

7

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

Nov 2, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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