OptionProbability
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
20-27 years old
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
US citizen
Male
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
White
Born in the United States
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
Native English speaker (L1)
used a bolt action rifle
has at least one sibling
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
disliked Charlie Kirk
Is named Tyler Robinson
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
Resided in the same state as the incident
Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law
Is a registered voter
Did it on purpose
Skinny
Gamer
wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing
The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien
Motivated primarily by political ideology
ectomorph body type
Had bullets with engraved messages on them
He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.
Acted alone (no accomplices)
Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member
Is left wing
Owns steam profile 76561198159427286
at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
has expressed positive sentiment towards furries
Turns themselves in to the police / FBI
Hunter
Accident please N/A
has purchased furry-related media or items
Will plead guilty
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender
Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)
Unemployed
iphone user
Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs
is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman
Not a virgin
Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam
Owns a car
Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area
legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk
has a furaffinity account
actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.
Furry
Owns physical furry paraphernalia
Communicated with peers primarily through Discord
extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices
Strongly opposes zionism
Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman
n/a
There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account
Dies in prison
Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa
has used the word yiff in written communication
Conspired with an AI chatbot about this
Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Is sentenced to death
had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university
Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt
was prescribed psychiatric medication
has vore kink
Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)
Went to furry events
cross-dresser
Will kill again (including suicide)
Wrote a manifesto before the shooting
JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has a Bluesky account
Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy
White cis-hetero Christian man
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione
student at any university
Owns a fursuit
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry
Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting
Brony or a fan of My Little Pony
Radical Centrist/JREG fan
Will be convicted by EOY 2025
Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma
Former or current Charlie Kirk fan
Has ADHD
psychedelics user
at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Contact with CVLT/764/similar
made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)
There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account
Was on an FBI watchlist
6 ft tall
Had diagnosed mental illness
Will be convicted by EOY 2026
J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy
Transgender
Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side
Incel
Fan fiction author
Femboy
History of illegal drug addiction
Escapes carceral detention
Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time
History of domestic violence
has significant student load debt
Owned the firearm used
Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)
Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way
Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)
Left-handed
Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)
All questions in this market are resolved before 2026
Had felony conviction previously
Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member
groyper
Is right wing
Current or previous student at University of Utah
is Mossad
Was a student at UVU
Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)
Accelerationist (any subtype)
Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists
Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets
White Nationalist
The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book
Current or former Roman Catholic
Involved in Effective Altruism
Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?
Has a parent who drives for Uber
decel
Will get killed by law enforcement
Was a fan of Charlie Kirk
The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology
Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)
Used a handgun
Ex-military
Has a PhD
Has a Manifold account
Muslim
Veteran
History of alcoholism
A time traveller trying to avoid the worst
Will share their first name with a famous video game character
Participates in this market
Teenager
Has a master's degree
Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.
Female Ninja Type Sniper
Is or was a computer science student
is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat
Ex law enforcement
Married
Parent
Manifold assists with his capture
Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head
Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025
Not arrested before EOY 2025
Fled the country after the shooting
Personally knew Charlie Kirk
Enjoys diplomatic immunity
Indian national
The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI
Iranian national
Registered Democrat
used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory
The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria
Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14
Will be apprehended at a McDonald's
50 years or older
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
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99
99
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99
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92
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86
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82
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79
72
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69
67
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62
60
58
58
56
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52
50
50
47
46
46
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42
39
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35
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34
32
32
32
31
29
28
27
27
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25
23
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21
21
18
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15
15
15
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13
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
mandrake root on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hermione is white
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Premieres in 2026
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Zendaya is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Hermione is Indian
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Keir Starmer is in it
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Gandalf is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
97
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
91
90
88
84
83
83
83
78
78
74
74
73
70
68
66
65
65
64
64
63
59
58
55
55
55
55
52
45
43
41
41
36
34
34
33
32
32
30
30
29
28
27
25
25
24
23
22
21
20
15
15
14
13
12
12
11
11
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Japan attacked by Chinese
Japan allows use of airbases
Malacca Strait blockaded
Guam attacked by Chinese
Oil shortages in China
US destroys TSMC factories
Taiwan surrenders
Food shortages in China
China attacks Japan
Japanese military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
US military intervention
Philippines attacked by Chinese
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
Philippines allows use of airbases
South Korea allows use of airbases
South Korean military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Chinese mainland bombed
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
European military intervention
Indian military intervention
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
China attacks South Korea
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
78
77
70
67
61
60
56
54
54
52
51
49
49
49
48
47
45
42
40
40
40
39
39
38
38
38
37
36
35
34
33
12
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
27427
3926
OptionProbability
Will be Indian
Will do an English interview after winning on that same day
Will have won by his opponent resigning or quitting or other irregular outing at least one game
Every challenger he faces will not be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
In his first challenge, he will either beat an Indian challenger or lose to a non-Indian challenger. Indian meaning "ethnically Indian".
Every challenger he faces will be Indian (ethnicity) until he no longer holds it
Will only be champion for ~1 year
He will marry while world champion
He will stay champion until he marries. (marry then lose at next defense, YES), (marry + defend once, NO), (lose before marrying, NO),
Will defend his title at least three times
He will change citizenship or country he represents while world champion
He will become a father while world champion
Will lose the championship title to someone who has been world champion before
Will defend his title at least ten times
Will resign/quit or otherwise not defend his title during an official challenge match
Will be Chinese
Will have entered candidates tournament at least two times
Will have been born in a current day EU country
Will be married
Will have a child
100
100
100
58
49
35
28
28
24
14
9
8
6
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Tortaria
Hunan Bistro
Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)
Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)
Hill Country
Carlotto
Dominic Ansel Workshop
BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)
Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)
Thai Villa
Bhatti Indian Grill
Brindle Room
Osteria Morini
Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria
Tao Downtown
Strip House (44th + 5th)
Keste Pizza
Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)
Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)
Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)
Prince Street Pizza
Dominic Ansel Kitchen
Au Za'atar
Rezdora
Da Umberto
Casa Mono
Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)
The Donut Pub (both locations must close)
Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)
Scarpetta
Via Carota
Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)
The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)
Japonica
Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)
Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)
Naya (four closest locations must close)
Katz's Delicatessen
Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)
98
98
73
52
48
46
31
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
24
24
21
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
16
12
OptionProbability
Male
Individual Net Worth < $1 million
never ran for president before
White
perceived in mainstream news as more right-wing / centrist than Biden
has at least one brother
Pro-Israel
Governor at some point
From a swing state
already ran in a primary for Democrat before
Has a law degree
60 or older
6'0 or taller
House member at some point
Business leader
has at least two children at time.of election
Senator at some point
Actor , internet, or tv star
East asian
aoc as vp
bald
Indian
walz as vp
kamala as vp
related to trump
bernie as vp
79
76
75
68
67
66
64
59
55
54
54
50
50
50
34
34
34
27
24
24
17
13
13
8
4
4
OptionProbability
SpaceX
US government
Chinese government
Other
European Space Agency
Blue Origin
Russian government
Indian government
Turkish Space Agency
Japanese government
46
30
21
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Recording exists of them saying "fuck"
photo of them in suspenders/overalls on the internet
Has Tattoo
Had At least one sex scandal
Has Brown Eyes
Is 6'0" or taller (183cm)
Photo exists on internet of them wearing suspenders/overalls
at least one divorce at time of announcement
Currently Married
Is Bald
60 or older at time of announcement
Is Indian
at least one arrest
79
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
10
10
4
4
OptionProbability
Recording exists of them saying "fuck"
Currently Married
Has Tattoo
at least one divorce at time of announcement
Has Brown Eyes
Had At least one sex scandal
at least one arrest
Is Indian
60 or older at time of announcement
Is 6'0" or taller (183cm)
82
59
50
43
41
34
34
28
28
24
OptionProbability
Other
Ruy López Opening
Nimzo-Indian Defense
Najdorf
Berlin Defense
Grünfeld Defense
41
17
15
11
9
7
OptionProbability
>20
5-10%
11-15%
15-20%
<5%
27
20
20
20
14
