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Prediction markets for Industrial Automation

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Will The Architect (Siberian Node) publicly leak the Golden Ratio (1.618) Engineering Prompt in 2026?

Apr 18, 12:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.75%chance

82288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

89

Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.62%chance

302190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

771

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

21885

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Judges < 2040

Teacher < 2040

53

45

36

36

35

34

28

28

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

AI creates more jobs than it eliminates worldwide by 2030?

Jun 26, 9:43 AMDec 31, 9:41 AM

30%chance

9162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

US tech employment drops 10% from 2025 value in which year?

May 19, 3:47 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2035

2036-2040

2041-2045

2046-2050

After 2050

23

15

15

15

15

15

Industrial Explosion before 2040?

Dec 2, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Indian IT sector job displacement due to AI by February 2028

Jan 12, 1:49 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

750

OptionProbability

>20

5-10%

11-15%

15-20%

<5%

27

20

20

20

14

Can hydrogen have a significant market share as an alternative fuel in automotive industry in next decade?

Oct 11, 4:30 PM

80

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