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Prediction markets for Industrious

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

1711042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

686

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

249219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

118197

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

40

22

22

6

5

2

1

1

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

73%chance

453794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

798

Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.62%chance

302190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

771

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Mar 31, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.65%chance

232073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

892

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

77.43%chance

51540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3308

1022

Will an AI be able to generate industrial grade CAD parts by a prompt or an annotated draft before 2027 ?

Feb 27, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.98%chance

351386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

803

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average cross 50,000 by March 31, 2026, the end of the fiscal quarter.

Jan 7, 2:02 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

73.95%chance

6697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

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