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Industrious News

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

228377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

73%chance

453794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

798

Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?

Apr 21, 2:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.62%chance

302190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

771

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Mar 31, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.65%chance

232073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

892

Will an AI be able to generate industrial grade CAD parts by a prompt or an annotated draft before 2027 ?

Feb 27, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.98%chance

351386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

803

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.43%chance

61355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2255

443

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will the US Industrial Production index in December 2025 be higher than in September 2018?

Aug 1, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.72%chance

71324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

63.02%chance

5540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2308

1435

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Will "The Industrial Explosion" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 28, 11:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.46%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

968

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