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Prediction markets for Industry Ventures

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.8%chance

9877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

667

Will bioengineering plastic digesting microbes become profitable?

Dec 31, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16432

OptionProbability

by the end of 2034

by the end of 2050

never

by the end of 2024

56

35

7

2

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

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