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Prediction markets for Inflection AI

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.75%chance

174167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1767

566

Will Inflection AI still exist EOY 2025?

Mar 22, 6:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92%chance

242856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3418

360

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.65%chance

272600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2095

599

Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?

Oct 5, 2:30 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

21733

OptionProbability

Meta

Other

Mistral AI

Bytedance

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

EluetherAI

Tesla

Anthropic

Inflection AI

Databricks

Alibaba Group

17

16

15

11

9

9

6

6

4

4

3

2

Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?

Oct 8, 10:22 PMDec 23, 6:59 AM

9647

OptionProbability

Microsoft/OpenAI

Google (Alphabet)

Amazon/Anthropic

Other

[A Chinese Company]

Meta

Inflection AI

Tesla

IBM

Boston Dynamics (Hyundai)

Other

19

16

12

12

10

8

7

6

4

4

2

Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?

Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.15%chance

15582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

110

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

11390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

74.52%chance

16296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

940

Will there be a high profile power struggle at Inflection AI before 2026?

Nov 22, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2025?

Oct 16, 8:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

23.15%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

55

Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2035?

Oct 16, 9:56 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

74.73%chance

341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

89

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