Informal Systems News

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

14299

6435

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

17.86%chance

11319267

OptionVotes

YES

2145

466

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2714038

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

If the Gulf of Mexico is renamed to the Gulf of America, will it be because…

Jan 8, 6:30 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

255117

OptionProbability

An executive order is issued and upheld requiring all federal agencies to use the new name?

It changes on Google Maps?

The Interior Secretary orders the name change?

Louisiana changes the name on official state documents and maps?

USGS updates Geographic Names Information System, or G.N.I.S., to reflect the name change?

Florida changes name on official documents and maps

Texas changes the name on official state documents and maps?

The Department of Defense mandates the use of the new name in all military operations and documents?

Alabama changes name on official documents and maps?

NOAA officially adopts the new name in all nautical charts and documentation?

The President requires states to change references to the name in order receive federal aid?

A joint resolution of Congress (not from MTG) approves the name change?

Legislation drafted by Marjorie Taylor Greene is passed by Congress and signed by the President?

The Foreign Names Committee of the US Bureau of Geographic Names approves a change to the official name?

The International Hydrographic Organization approves the change?

Mexico agrees to the name change through diplomatic channels?

A treaty between the U.S., Mexico, and Cuba establishes the new name?

100

Will we discover alien life before 2033?

Jan 12, 7:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.45%chance

424301

OptionVotes

YES

992

976

Will we discover alien life before 2034?

Jan 26, 10:57 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

493725

OptionVotes

YES

1194

950

Will we discover alien life before 2036?

Feb 3, 6:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.84%chance

231973

OptionVotes

YES

1051

973

Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 11, 3:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.54%chance

331116

OptionVotes

YES

1172

939

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.6%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

121

Informal Systems News

Prediction markets for Informal Systems

Prediction markets for Informal Systems

Prediction markets for Informal Systems

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

If the Gulf of Mexico is renamed to the Gulf of America, will it be because…

Will we discover alien life before 2033?

Will we discover alien life before 2034?

Will we discover alien life before 2036?

Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

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