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Prediction markets for Information

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

143892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light

Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.27%chance

192304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

943

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?

Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.26%chance

181633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

852

Who leaked information to Simmi?

Jan 19, 8:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51547

OptionProbability

Simmi had an alt

Cosine / Sine / Tangent model enjoyer

Predictonomics

EasyE

SammyStacks

Fuurious

Cookie

AiBets

K1

Cench

reg Monkey

Logan

lady

type shi

zurgadai

29

23

16

8

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

291309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

Will "The Information: OpenAI shows 'Strawberry' to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 5:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.55%chance

21015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1811

908

Will the Information Commissioner of Canada Resign in 2025?

Jul 18, 7:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.17%chance

6999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?

Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

89.19%chance

14354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

932

Will "Information vs Assurance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 27, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

93

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