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Information News

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.89%chance

2320529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17934

4842

It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light

Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.27%chance

192304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

943

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?

Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.5%chance

181694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

917

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

291309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

Will an AI system discover information theory from first principles before 2031?

May 1, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.73%chance

6460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

746

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?

Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

89.19%chance

14354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

932

Will any company be GDPR fined for inputting personally identifiable information into ChatGPT before 2030?

Feb 9, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

60.48%chance

9235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

122

Will the paper be reproduced by 2028?: Transduction of DNA information through water and electromagnetic waves

Mar 23, 7:58 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

15.37%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

99

Private-information aggregation futarchy Nash Equilibria

Aug 16, 8:53 PMDec 31, 5:17 PM

59.02%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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