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Information News

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.85%chance

2320535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18118

4837

It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light

Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.27%chance

192304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

943

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

50.18%chance

171774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

965

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?

Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.5%chance

181694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

917

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

291309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

Will an AI system discover information theory from first principles before 2031?

May 1, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.73%chance

6460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

746

Will there be a leak of military secrets or sensitive information on the War Thunder game forums in 2026?

Jun 23, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.9%chance

10400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

37

Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?

Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.55%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

965

Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?

Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

89.19%chance

14354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

932

Will the Ethereum L1 use quantum information transmission by 2035?

Aug 7, 12:39 AMJan 1, 1:36 AM

9.8%chance

8209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

147

Will the paper be reproduced by 2028?: Transduction of DNA information through water and electromagnetic waves

Mar 23, 7:58 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

15.37%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

99

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