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Prediction markets for Information Security

US Govt acquires 5% of Boeing by 6/30/26?

Aug 23, 12:09 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

166052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2358

424

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.76%chance

155268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2880

347

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Feb 19, 6:51 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.33%chance

444093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

934

Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as the highest-impact they've identified at the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

192109

OptionProbability

AI governance and policy

AI safety technical research

Biorisk research, strategy, and policy

Information security in high-impact areas

Expert in AI hardware

Helping build the effective altruism community

China-related AI safety and governance paths

Grantmaker focused on pressing world problems

Nuclear weapons safety and security

Operations management in high-impact organisations

Research into global priorities

99

91

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?

Jun 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

8%chance

91938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

62

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Oct 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.58%chance

71582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

586

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.59%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

806

Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.9%chance

4171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

87

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

Will the number of people employed as Information Security Analysts in US decrease by more than 15% from 2024 til 2044?

Aug 9, 4:29 PMAug 16, 9:59 PM

28.04%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

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