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Prediction markets for Information Security

If @Aella and I go on a "proper date", we will marry, have offspring, and control the world with intellectual force.

Feb 21, 2:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.96%chance

5334071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1832

546

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

Feb 19, 6:51 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.33%chance

444093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

934

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

143892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.94%chance

253648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2472

405

Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?

Jun 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

8%chance

91938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

62

Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as the highest-impact they've identified at the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

191459

OptionProbability

AI governance and policy

AI safety technical research

Biorisk research, strategy, and policy

Operations management in high-impact organisations

Grantmaker focused on pressing world problems

Nuclear weapons safety and security

Research into global priorities

Helping build the effective altruism community

Information security in high-impact areas

Expert in AI hardware

China-related AI safety and governance paths

99

91

89

83

80

80

80

78

71

71

71

Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 3:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.61%chance

251075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

894

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.9%chance

4171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

87

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

Will the number of people employed as Information Security Analysts in US decrease by more than 15% from 2024 til 2044?

Aug 9, 4:29 PMAug 16, 9:59 PM

28.04%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

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