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Prediction markets for Infrastructure

Looking for Growth UK's National Priority Infrastructure Bill becomes law by December 31st 2025

Jan 18, 3:37 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

1%chance

59390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Drone attack on Taiwan's critical infrastructure before December 31, 2025

Jun 17, 8:29 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.29%chance

313886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3860

259

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

353628

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

99

35

26

25

24

24

20

19

17

17

16

15

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

9

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.64%chance

271321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

946

Will AWS remain the market share leader in cloud infrastructure services by Q4 2025?

Mar 22, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.79%chance

141197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1891

832

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.23%chance

231069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1462

914

Will more than $1B of infrastructure be destroyed by an asteroid impact by 2030?

Sep 23, 8:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.98%chance

121001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

919

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.91%chance

12550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3605

3380

Will Canada leave the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank before 2026?

Jun 15, 6:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.43%chance

8276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

36

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.7%chance

4127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

54

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