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Prediction markets for Infrastructure

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

373655

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

99

35

26

25

24

22

21

20

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

9

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.49%chance

291424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

914

Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026

Mar 17, 4:10 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM

48%chance

231142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

Will more than $1B of infrastructure be destroyed by an asteroid impact by 2030?

Sep 23, 8:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.98%chance

121001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

919

Will Manifold think Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure succeeded or backfired?

Jan 9, 3:52 AMMar 30, 2:25 AM

8835

OptionProbability

Succeeded

Backfired

77

23

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.13%chance

7220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

In 2030, will I think I was right about Habryka as a counterparty / Lightcone Infrastructure as a donation target?

Nov 3, 4:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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