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Prediction markets for Infrastructure

Will AI technology and infrastructure and AI itself become extinct before 2100?

Sep 30, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

1.42%chance

62294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

57

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.34%chance

361856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

740

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

44.23%chance

71047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

891

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?

Sep 23, 3:23 AMNov 20, 11:59 PM

8.21%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

68

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.66%chance

7250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will published research show decreases in right-wing bot activity due to Russian data infrastructure damage?

Oct 13, 2:28 PMOct 13, 2:07 PM

48.41%chance

8167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

In 2030, will I think I was right about Habryka as a counterparty / Lightcone Infrastructure as a donation target?

Nov 3, 4:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will Russia destroy global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?

Sep 27, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

11%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

91

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