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Prediction markets for Infrastructure

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

625332

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Other

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Nanotech

Nuclear war

Other biotech/bioweapon

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Drones or other macro robots

Chemical weapons

24

14

11

9

9

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

414185

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

The Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Vatican City

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

97

47

35

26

25

25

24

21

21

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

10

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.34%chance

361856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

740

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

44.23%chance

71047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

891

Will more than $1B of infrastructure be destroyed by an asteroid impact by 2030?

Sep 23, 8:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.98%chance

121001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

919

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.66%chance

7250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?

Sep 23, 3:23 AMNov 20, 11:59 PM

17.28%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

86

In 2030, will I think I was right about Habryka as a counterparty / Lightcone Infrastructure as a donation target?

Nov 3, 4:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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