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Prediction markets for Infrastructure

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

414185

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

The Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Vatican City

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

97

47

35

26

25

25

24

21

21

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

10

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.17%chance

301534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

922

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

Will more than $1B of infrastructure be destroyed by an asteroid impact by 2030?

Sep 23, 8:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.98%chance

121001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

919

Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?

May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.28%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3648

3335

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 35 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

87.82%chance

3292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

19

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 28 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

92.98%chance

2275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

359

50

[Metaculus] Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

49.52%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 100 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:30 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

2.94%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 65 billion on June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 10:31 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

21.92%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

34

In 2030, will I think I was right about Habryka as a counterparty / Lightcone Infrastructure as a donation target?

Nov 3, 4:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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