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Infrastructure fund News

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

185843

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

83

10

3

1

1

1

1

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?

Jun 1, 3:04 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

191491

OptionProbability

0-40

40-80

80-120

120-160

160-200

280-320

320-360

360-400

400-440

440-480

480-520

520-560

560-600

600-640

640-680

680-720

720-760

760-800

800-840

840-880

880-920

920-960

200-240

240-280

960-1000

1000-1040

1040-1080

1080-1120

1120-1160

1160-1200

1200-1240

1240-1280

1280-1320

1320-1360

1360-1400

1400-1440

1440-1480

1480-1520

1520-1560

1560-1600

1600-1640

1640-1680

1680-1720

1720-1760

1760-1800

1800-1840

1840-1880

1880-1920

1920-1960

1960-2000

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will Free Our Feeds reach 30 million in donations?

Jan 17, 7:42 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

3862

OptionProbability

Never

Later

2027

2028

2029

2026

February 2025

March 2025

April 2025

May 2025

Second half of 2025

January 2025

36

21

16

10

10

3

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

9806

OptionProbability

Acceptance

Rejection

Waitlist

46

38

16

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.42%chance

9507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

26

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

2135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

When will the Rio Grande Plan be completed?

Apr 24, 4:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Before 2042

Before 2034

Before 2035

Before 2036

Before 2037

Before 2038

Before 2039

Before 2040

Before 2041

Before 2033

55

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

45

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