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Prediction markets for Infrastructure fund

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

18.73%chance

8811622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2083

480

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4212

237

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

121095

OptionProbability

Rejection

Acceptance

Waitlist

47

41

12

Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?

Feb 8, 4:07 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

70.05%chance

191020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will SpaceX complete an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026 and at what valuation?

Feb 19, 9:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6172

OptionProbability

No IPO by Dec 31, 2026

Yes — valuation $1T–$1.5T

Yes — valuation $500B–$1T

Yes — valuation under $500B

Yes — valuation above $1.5T

41

20

17

11

10

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

When will the Rio Grande Plan be completed?

Apr 24, 4:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Before 2042

Before 2034

Before 2035

Before 2036

Before 2037

Before 2038

Before 2039

Before 2040

Before 2041

Before 2033

55

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

45

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