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Prediction markets for Infrastructure fund

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

10.8%chance

10014289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

348

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

6010049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5703

4805

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

735

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.23%chance

53655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4041

247

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?

Jun 1, 3:04 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

191491

OptionProbability

0-40

40-80

80-120

120-160

160-200

280-320

320-360

360-400

400-440

440-480

480-520

520-560

560-600

600-640

640-680

680-720

720-760

760-800

800-840

840-880

880-920

920-960

200-240

240-280

960-1000

1000-1040

1040-1080

1080-1120

1120-1160

1160-1200

1200-1240

1240-1280

1280-1320

1320-1360

1360-1400

1400-1440

1440-1480

1480-1520

1520-1560

1560-1600

1600-1640

1640-1680

1680-1720

1720-1760

1760-1800

1800-1840

1840-1880

1880-1920

1920-1960

1960-2000

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?

Mar 31, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.77%chance

14382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

21

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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