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If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.12%chance

17366341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8877

3516

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:17 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

24.91%chance

10618032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3271

1678

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027?

Apr 11, 2:47 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

40.42%chance

161727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

936

Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030?

Mar 26, 11:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14.33%chance

17747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

901

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

631

Will first contact with extraterrestrial life be initiated by Earthlings?

Aug 25, 3:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

41.51%chance

19582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

957

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.71%chance

13196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

903

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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