INIT News
Prediction markets for INIT
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM
52.59%chance
767314
OptionVotes
2494
1805
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?
Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.62%chance
7955
OptionVotes
1715
583
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?
Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60%chance
5805
OptionVotes
1225
816
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?
Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.14%chance
4750
OptionVotes
1650
606
OptionVotes
1271
787
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
71.52%chance
12682
OptionVotes
1585
631
Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?
Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
73.54%chance
18563
OptionVotes
1145
915
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.68%chance
14516
OptionVotes
1056
963
Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?
Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM
30.77%chance
1500
OptionVotes
1505
672
OptionVotes
1105
905
OptionVotes
1400
714
Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?
May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.47%chance
13159
OptionVotes
1875
1696