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Prediction markets for INIT

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.62%chance

7955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1715

583

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will Colorado Initiative 85 pass in 2026?

Jan 28, 2:20 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

61.75%chance

7710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

631

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

672

Will Colorado Initiative 95 pass in 2026?

Jan 28, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

7415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.71%chance

13196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

903

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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