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Prediction markets for Initial Public Offering

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

195895

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

74

20

3

1

1

1

1

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

343099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

151460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

353

28

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

9847

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Anduril will not IPO

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

27

17

14

13

10

4

4

4

4

1

1

1

Will John McGuire IPO his startup by 2030?

Feb 13, 11:27 PMDec 16, 7:59 AM

12.9%chance

5700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

119

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

21591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

10

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.23%chance

15421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

What will Anthropic’s publicly traded market value be on 12/31/27

Jun 7, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5269

OptionProbability

$2.0tn - $2.49tn

$1.5tn - $1.99tn

$2.5tn - $2.99tn

Above $4.0tn

$1.0tn - $1.49tn

$3.0tn - $3.49tn

$3.5tn - $4.0tn

Below $1.0tn

15

14

14

14

11

11

11

9

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

100

Will Quora ever go public or be acquired?

Dec 6, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.63%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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