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Prediction markets for Initial Public Offerings

Will DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMDec 31, 1:41 AM

9.95%chance

12118422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3008

332

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

164194

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

$200 - 299bn

$100 - 199bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

55

30

6

4

3

1

1

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

131631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

19%chance

261496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

754

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.23%chance

15421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

🏦 The All Memeing Bank 🏦 - will I lend more than 100k mana in 2025?

Apr 14, 3:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.66%chance

8343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

29

NYC government-run grocery stores exist on January 1, 2030?

Jun 25, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.4%chance

7238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

When (if ever) will Bohmian mechanics overthrow quantum theory?

Nov 12, 7:09 PMNov 13, 7:04 PM

3219

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2040

Before the end of 2045

Before the end of 2035

Before the end of 2030

11

11

10

5

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.12%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

100

Will Quora ever go public or be acquired?

Dec 6, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.63%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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