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Prediction markets for Initial Public Offerings

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.97%chance

4117263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4374

229

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216583

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

26

22

12

12

11

8

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

394851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

587

17

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

264385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3328

300

Will Databricks IPO before 2028?

Oct 1, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

131031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.48%chance

15431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Glosso IPO By 2027?

Jun 14, 1:24 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

7.55%chance

2250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

29

When (if ever) will Bohmian mechanics overthrow quantum theory?

Nov 12, 7:09 PMNov 13, 7:04 PM

3239

OptionProbability

Before the end of 2040

Before the end of 2045

Before the end of 2035

Before the end of 2030

15

15

10

5

Will Uber take over Delivery Hero until end of 2026?

Aug 27, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

44

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

What will OpenAI + Anthropic's combined annualized revenue run rate (ARR) be at year-end 2027?

Oct 7, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18

OptionProbability

$350-$449B

$450-$550B

>$550B

less than $350B

26

26

26

23

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