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Prediction markets for Initial Public Offerings

Did DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMJun 30, 5:18 PM

32.03%chance

13121661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

687

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

185843

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

83

10

3

1

1

1

1

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

15%chance

263960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1962

686

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

Will SpaceX IPO before Bitcoin hits $100K again?

Apr 23, 9:05 PMApr 23, 9:04 PM

84.42%chance

10840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

225

Will SpaceX complete an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026 and at what valuation?

Feb 19, 9:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12795

OptionProbability

Yes — valuation above $1.5T

Yes — valuation $500B–$1T

No IPO by Dec 31, 2026

Yes — valuation under $500B

Yes — valuation $1T–$1.5T

96

2

1

1

1

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

5787

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2027

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Anduril will not IPO

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

24

20

15

14

9

4

4

4

4

1

1

1

Will John McGuire IPO his startup by 2030?

Feb 13, 11:27 PMDec 16, 7:59 AM

12.9%chance

5700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

119

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

12273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

31

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

100

Will federal student loan be given with zero interest in the US by 2050?

Mar 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.97%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

113

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