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Prediction markets for Initialized

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

31.84%chance

778757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

1069

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.98%chance

102928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.42%chance

81237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1965

509

Will Colorado Initiative 85 pass in 2026?

Jan 28, 2:20 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

62.54%chance

7805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

774

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.61%chance

5770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1670

599

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.39%chance

14686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1580

633

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.31%chance

19601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

940

Will Colorado Initiative 95 pass in 2026?

Jan 28, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.45%chance

10566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will Wyoming's 2026 property tax initiative pass?

Mar 9, 1:17 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

34.1%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1390

719

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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