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Prediction markets for Initialized Capital

[Polymarket] What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Dec 17, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

254311

OptionProbability

$X

$STAR

$SPAX

$SX

$SEX

$MARS

$SPACE

Other

$SPC

58

13

10

5

4

4

2

2

1

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.32%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

644

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1087

906

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

Will "Where is the Capital? An Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 17, 4:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.67%chance

9226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

88

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

4202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

Will "Capital Ownership Will Not Prevent Human Dise..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 6, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9%chance

154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

93

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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