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Prediction markets for Initialized Capital

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

185843

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

83

10

3

1

1

1

1

MIRACLE Stock

Apr 5, 4:40 PMApr 6, 2:59 AM

12000

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?

Aug 1, 9:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.06%chance

12539

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1087

906

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

Will "Where is the Capital? An Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 17, 4:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.81%chance

8168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

45

Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026

Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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