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Prediction markets for INJ

How many Hezbollah Operatives were INJURED by the pager operation

Sep 17, 3:17 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3311393

OptionProbability

more than 2500

500<=x<1000

1500<=x<=2500

1000<=x<1500

<100

100<=x<500

95

2

2

1

0

0

Neuralink clinical trials: will someone be seriously injured or killed?

May 26, 7:22 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

12.71%chance

365867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

765

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

Will Juan Soto spend more than 15 days on the injured list during the 2025 regular season?

Jan 2, 11:52 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

25.46%chance

71569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

Will any hack of a Tesla vehicle result in someone's death or serious injury before 2026?

Dec 4, 6:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.03%chance

151139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

875

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

38.69%chance

11944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

23.35%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

2605

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

Will Shohei Ohtani get injured in the MLB 2025 Season?

Nov 4, 2:02 AMOct 4, 3:59 AM

48.4%chance

10309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

54.43%chance

9171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

95

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

52.67%chance

470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

948

Will 100 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030

May 11, 4:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

18.93%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

64

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