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Prediction markets for INJ

How many Hezbollah Operatives were INJURED by the pager operation

Sep 17, 3:17 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3311513

OptionProbability

more than 2500

<100

100<=x<500

500<=x<1000

1000<=x<1500

1500<=x<=2500

99

0

0

0

0

0

Neuralink clinical trials: will someone be seriously injured or killed?

May 26, 7:22 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

14.12%chance

376117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

788

Will any hack of a Tesla vehicle result in someone's death or serious injury before 2026?

Dec 4, 6:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.95%chance

183201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2360

748

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

15.4%chance

161871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4277

2285

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

913

Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030

May 11, 4:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

20%chance

10518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

139

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.17%chance

479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Will 100 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030

May 11, 4:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

18.93%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

64

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?

May 11, 8:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.13%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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