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Prediction markets for Innovation

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.96%chance

11227617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

1184

Will blockchain gaming or blockchain features provide meaningful gameplay innovation to players in the next 4 years?

Dec 25, 9:19 PMJan 31, 2:59 AM

9.13%chance

453162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

899

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.34%chance

302958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1443

689

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.73%chance

231451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2404

1181

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

What technology or innovation will have the most transformative impact on our daily lives in the next decade?

Sep 23, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19837

OptionProbability

AI & ML

Biotech and gene editing

Clean energy solutions

Quantum computing

Space exploration and colonization

5G and Beyond

56

18

10

7

6

2

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 5 years?

Mar 3, 6:04 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

19.07%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

69

Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?

Mar 16, 8:43 AMMar 15, 6:59 AM

21.31%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

97

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will the Responsible Innovation and Safe Expertise (RISE) Act of 2025 become law in the United States before 1 Jan 2027?

Jun 12, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

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