OptionVotes
YES
NO
1393
720
1185
844
OptionProbability
2050 or Later
2030-2034
2040-2049
Before 2030
2035-2039
41
28
14
9
351
99
No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)
No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.
Yes: transformers scale the best
No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)
51
37
7
5
Before 2050
Before 2040
61
44
32
