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Prediction markets for INS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

433011800543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26103

17825

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.25%chance

26532362244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14585

1335

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.5%chance

17442350209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12553

8564

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18142026959

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jon Ossoff

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

Ruben Gallego

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Michelle Obama

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

28

14

10

7

5

5

5

4

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

96.6%chance

1281859216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

533607

18765

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

3.8%chance

4301342179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503441

19890

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.45%chance

498762175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26539

3773

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41%chance

596581935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3190

1496

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

344242238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

1260

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

15484525

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

49.02%chance

6123658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49780

48722

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