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Prediction markets for INS

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26%chance

420011292067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30182

16208

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

25582231068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10976

2019

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

17641927479

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Mark Kelly

J.B. Pritzker

Jon Ossoff

Gretchen Whitmer

Raphael Warnock

Andy Beshear

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Ruben Gallego

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Cory Booker

Kathy Hochul

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Jon Stewart

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

28

16

9

6

6

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.3%chance

10011127300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11857

8840

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

5%chance

339936443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436381

22947

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.16%chance

101617501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

443823

22561

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

407581288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14909

6716

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

556501425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.47%chance

493409147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2991

2170

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

46.11%chance

5520913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52799

45984

Will the Seahawks beat the Patriots in the 2026 Superbowl?

Jan 26, 2:52 AMFeb 9, 4:00 AM

68.9%chance

7218615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

27436

23803

Spain's population end of 2026? [in MM]

Jan 11, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.8%chance

92181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5108

4982

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