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Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

17782

9207

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

16649049

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

25533

3383

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025

Oct 23, 11:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.77%chance

258387

OptionVotes

YES

3655

767

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

325948

OptionProbability

Other

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Apr 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.73%chance

483498

OptionVotes

YES

1489

637

Will DOGE inspect Fort Knox to verify the presence of the 4,580 tons of US gold by the end of 2025?

Feb 17, 12:41 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

16.32%chance

172677

OptionVotes

YES

2264

442

JD Vance Meme Futures Index (#1 Best of 2025)

Mar 5, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11725

OptionProbability

07) Curly Vance

Other

04) Alex Vance

12) Kash Me Outside Vance

18) Sneaky Sneaky Vance

24) Vance Halen

11) Family Feud Vance

15) JD Hot Tub

16) Circle Vance

22) JDelania

14) Rotund Vance

17) Jadala Varris

19) Leading Vance

20) JD Hogan

21) JD Voldemort

23) JD Musk

01) Patriotic Vance

05) JD Polyphemus

06) Transgender Inspection Vance

08) Vance Epic Collage

09) Metaculus Vance

10) JD EGG

13) Kim Jong Vance

25) Self-Own Vance

02) Square Vance

03) Inflated Ego Vance

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

1288

777

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

62.8%chance

18594

OptionVotes

YES

1005

985

Will there be "compulsory genital inspection regime" in the USA by the end of Trump's term?

Jan 22, 1:22 PMJan 30, 10:59 PM

13.02%chance

18499

OptionVotes

YES

258

Will two male inspectors kiss in a Tatort before the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.9%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

129

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Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Will DOGE inspect Fort Knox to verify the presence of the 4,580 tons of US gold by the end of 2025?

JD Vance Meme Futures Index (#1 Best of 2025)

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Will there be "compulsory genital inspection regime" in the USA by the end of Trump's term?

Will two male inspectors kiss in a Tatort before the end of 2025?

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