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Prediction markets for Instagram

Will the new TikTok Notes app be more popular than Instagram by the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.39%chance

267238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3203

712

Will Meta adopt nostr protocol in some app or service (Facebook, Threads, Instagram, WhatsApp) before the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 11:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.24%chance

173518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4307

817

Instagram will split from Meta by 2028

Apr 18, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.94%chance

142595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2853

351

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2025?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.76%chance

122098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2877

725

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2028?

Jan 11, 1:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.59%chance

17549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

951

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.37%chance

17474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

919

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.21%chance

16433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

956

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2045

2040

2035

Later/never

2030

60

56

50

40

39

Will Instagram have less than half a bilion active monthly users by 2028?

Apr 8, 7:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.22%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

What year will Ovechkin's instagram profile picture be one without Putin for the first time?

Jan 14, 12:18 AMJan 2, 9:59 PM

180

OptionProbability

2030 / later / never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

74

6

6

6

6

3

Will I reach 1000 followers on my main Instagram drawing/mazes account (@wgleonard3) before the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.68%chance

344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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