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Prediction markets for Instagram

Instagram will split from Meta by 2028

Apr 18, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

152596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2845

352

Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)

Dec 20, 11:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

541809

OptionProbability

Threads

Twitter / X

TikTok

LinkedIN

Instagram

72

17

9

2

0

Which major social media platforms will implement community notes by 2030? (FIXED)

Jan 8, 12:53 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

71076

OptionProbability

Facebook (the timeline, not messenger)

TikTok

Instagram

YouTube

Bluesky

Reddit

Hacker News

96

88

83

53

48

47

27

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.93%chance

17753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

875

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2028?

Jan 11, 1:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.59%chance

17549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

951

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.37%chance

17474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

919

On which platform will RulesGuru have the most followers at the end of 2025?

Jul 31, 8:43 AMJan 1, 6:53 PM

7292

OptionProbability

X

Tumblr

Instagram

Other

Bluesky

Facebook

Threads

Truth Social

Mastodon

76

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

Will Meta sell/divest from Instagram before 2028?

Jan 13, 3:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.14%chance

5201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

What year will Ovechkin's instagram profile picture be one without Putin for the first time?

Jan 14, 12:18 AMJan 2, 9:59 PM

1187

OptionProbability

2030 / later / never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

75

6

6

6

6

1

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2045

2040

2035

Later/never

2030

60

56

50

40

39

Will Instagram have less than half a bilion active monthly users by 2028?

Apr 8, 7:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.22%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

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