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Prediction markets for Instagram

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.33%chance

232624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3281

463

Instagram will split from Meta by 2028

Apr 18, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

152596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2845

352

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.93%chance

17753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

875

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2028?

Jan 11, 1:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.59%chance

17549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

951

Will Meta sell/divest from Instagram before 2028?

Jan 13, 3:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.61%chance

6211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

By when will any of the the UK/EU/US enact content regulation on short form videos (TikTok, Instagram Reels, etc)

Feb 22, 6:11 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2165

OptionProbability

2045

2040

2035

Later/never

2030

60

56

50

40

39

Will Instagram have less than half a bilion active monthly users by 2028?

Apr 8, 7:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.22%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

Will OpenSea integrate with Instagram by end of 2026?

Feb 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.48%chance

8159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

Will a post from my new Instagram (@sadly.not.ai) account go viral before 2027?

Sep 21, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

83

Will Javadoodles reach 1M followers on instagram by the end of 2027?

Aug 7, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.02%chance

367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will a sitting head of state post a video of themselves dancing on TikTok or Instagram Reels by end of 2026?

Apr 17, 9:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

56.62%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

194

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