Institute of Energy News

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

73.18%chance

413662

OptionVotes

YES

1181

828

What will be true about the Ecosystemic Futures Podcast by the end of 2025?

Jan 11, 9:42 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

7798

OptionProbability

Jake Barber will be a guest

At least one episode features a guest whose credentials are proven to be falsified

The host is revealed to have current or former employment with a US intelligence agency

The podcast has a verified collaboration with NASA

The podcast receives formal academic recognition or citations in peer-reviewed journals

Evidence emerges of corporate or special interest group funding beyond stated sponsors

At least one episode is formally retracted due to factual inaccuracies

The podcast is cited in official government documents or hearings

The podcast wins a major industry award for science communication

The podcast faces legal challenges over content or guest claims

The podcast is revealed to be part of an official government UAP disclosure initiative

Some host or guests voices are proven to be AI-generated

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

Jan 2, 10:00 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

35.23%chance

21761

OptionVotes

YES

213

183

What is the real GDP of China in 2024 as a percentage of it's official number?

Apr 21, 11:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3625

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

By which year will renewable sources first supply 50% of US electricity?

Oct 27, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10358

OptionProbability

2035-2039

2030-2034

2040-2049

Before 2030

2050-2054

2055-2059

2060 or later

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

Apr 4, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

4205

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will nuclear energy generation be above 800 TWh in 2028?

Aug 15, 6:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.98%chance

8105

OptionVotes

YES

157

Institute of Energy News

Prediction markets for Institute of Energy

Prediction markets for Institute of Energy

Prediction markets for Institute of Energy

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

What will be true about the Ecosystemic Futures Podcast by the end of 2025?

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

What is the real GDP of China in 2024 as a percentage of it's official number?

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

By which year will renewable sources first supply 50% of US electricity?

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will nuclear energy generation be above 800 TWh in 2028?

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