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Top stories

Bolivia’s October 19 Runoff Between Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga Highlights Gas Export Decline and Lithium Development Plans

Bolivia’s October 19 Runoff Between Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga Highlights Gas Export Decline and Lithium Development Plans

Authors

8

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Institute

If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?

Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.47%chance

5131182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23110

6062

Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?

Jan 7, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.24%chance

467548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4708

668

Is Richard Hanania correct that major institutions are anti-white and anti-male. There is Gay propaganda in schools etc.

Apr 4, 11:03 PMJul 25, 7:24 AM

24.69%chance

294632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

971

Will the Nati'l Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism & CDC introduce stricter alcohol consumption guidelines by 2025?

Aug 26, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.81%chance

393721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2769

481

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.31%chance

163092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3237

737

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.32%chance

42950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4370

915

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.9%chance

512833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

657

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.22%chance

22109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2964

337

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

May 8, 11:44 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

17.55%chance

201664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

632

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.86%chance

161059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

850

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

3650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040

May 16, 12:04 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

42.71%chance

20308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

953

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