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Top stories

Bolivia’s October 19 Runoff Between Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga Highlights Gas Export Decline and Lithium Development Plans

Bolivia’s October 19 Runoff Between Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga Highlights Gas Export Decline and Lithium Development Plans

Authors

8

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Institute

Is Richard Hanania correct that major institutions are anti-white and anti-male. There is Gay propaganda in schools etc.

Apr 4, 11:03 PMJul 25, 7:24 AM

22.71%chance

294658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

945

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.43%chance

522883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2109

648

Will Congress ban institutional investors from buying single family homes by 2027

Jan 7, 9:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.69%chance

92167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3052

328

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.22%chance

22109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2964

337

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

May 8, 11:44 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

11.35%chance

212024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

992

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Mar 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.81%chance

161494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

630

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.86%chance

161059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

850

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

What will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute's revenue be in 2027?

Apr 7, 12:58 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

3525

OptionProbability

Above $1,000,000

Above $2,000,000

Above $3,500,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $7,500,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $15,000,000

Above $20,000,000

Above $35,000,000

86

64

34

17

13

8

4

4

4

Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040

May 16, 12:04 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.82%chance

21408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

1011

Which of the Western countries will first implement a social credit system or a similar digital gulag institution?

Sep 1, 2:57 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

7313

OptionProbability

United States

United Kingdom

Australia

Denmark

Germany

Canada

Czech Republic

Estonia

Greece

Latvia

Norway

Austria

Belgium

France

Iceland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Spain

Sweden

None by 2100

Switzerland

10

9

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

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