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Prediction markets for Institutional Holdings

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21954257

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

80

9

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

16.53%chance

5010354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

793

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.32%chance

354705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

792

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

473044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

984

961

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

41.03%chance

42033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11989

8341

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?

Jun 24, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.33%chance

10507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

539

19

Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]

Jun 28, 11:54 PMDec 10, 6:59 AM

14477

OptionProbability

October Meeting

September Meeting

July Meeting

60

37

0

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

How many formal epistemologists will attend Manifest 2026?

May 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

0

6-10

10+

38

21

14

14

14

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