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Prediction markets for Institutional Holdings

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21651170

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Ahmad Vahidi

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

75

10

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.84%chance

5010342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1779

781

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.32%chance

354705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

792

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.21%chance

463034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

951

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

32016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11984

8344

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?

May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6247

OptionProbability

Applied Ethics

Decision Theory

Formal Epistemology

Metaethics

Philosophy of Mind

Philosophy of AI

Logic

Political Philosophy

Philosophy of Science

Philosophy of Language

History of Philosophy (non-ancient)

Ancient Philosophy

Continental Philosophy

Metaphysics

80

76

68

50

50

50

45

41

34

34

29

24

24

17

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

Will Alex Damian become a tenured MIT prof by EOY2031?

Apr 18, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

How many formal epistemologists will attend Manifest 2026?

May 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

0

6-10

10+

38

21

14

14

14

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