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Prediction markets for Institutional Holdings

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMMar 23, 11:59 PM

12119914

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Masoud Pezeshkian

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Sadegh Larijani

Maryam Rajavi

Ali Larijani

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

35

29

10

5

5

4

3

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1609

816

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

313748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

535

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

121095

OptionProbability

Rejection

Acceptance

Waitlist

47

41

12

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will Pam Bondi be Attorney General of the United States on 12/31/26?

Mar 10, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.84%chance

7236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

7.24%chance

4111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

688

Italy judicial reform: Disciplinary case against a magistrate investigating a sitting politician by EOY 2032?

Mar 12, 11:38 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

58.59%chance

447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

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