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Prediction markets for Institutional Holdings

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22457226

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

85

6

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.97%chance

5010404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

784

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11889

8411

If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?

Aug 26, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.32%chance

365205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

949

Will 2027 be the hottest year on record

Oct 14, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

274033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1601

625

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

473044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

984

961

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.29%chance

252294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

788

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?

May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

Applied Ethics

Decision Theory

Formal Epistemology

Philosophy of Language

Metaethics

Philosophy of Mind

Philosophy of AI

Logic

Political Philosophy

Philosophy of Science

Ancient Philosophy

Continental Philosophy

Metaphysics

History of Philosophy (non-ancient)

80

76

68

55

50

50

50

45

41

34

24

24

0

0

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

How many formal epistemologists will attend Manifest 2026?

May 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

320

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

6-10

10+

0

38

21

14

14

13

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