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Prediction markets for Institutional Relations

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.05%chance

145589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7177

3289

Will Russia attack NATO before 2034?

Nov 25, 11:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.76%chance

264388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

133

Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?

Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.22%chance

203337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2681

373

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?

Dec 15, 7:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

201560

OptionProbability

Labor > Catastrophic > Deepfakes

Labor > Deepfakes > Catastrophic

Catastrophic > Labor > Deepfakes

Deepfakes > Labor > Catastrophic

Catastrophic > Deepfakes > Labor

Deepfakes > Catastrophic > Labor

41

38

8

5

4

3

Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030?

Dec 28, 9:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.62%chance

21945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

933

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

29.39%chance

22310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

941

How much enhanced geothermal power in the US by 2030?

Nov 1, 3:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5266

OptionProbability

4 GW to 8 GW

2 GW to 4 GW

1 GW to 2 GW

>8 GW

<1 GW

29

25

23

13

10

"Trump freezes NIH grants to Princeton in 2025?"

Apr 4, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.22%chance

4205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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