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Prediction markets for Insurance

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?

Nov 24, 12:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95%chance

121150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1911

870

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030?

Nov 24, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.11%chance

21921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1383

630

Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Mar 21, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.63%chance

21695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

951

Will a large insurance company cover weight loss drugs before 2027?

Aug 3, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.76%chance

12679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

138

Will RISK fail to pay an insurance claim before 2028?

May 11, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.28%chance

7451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Tesla Insurance stock

Apr 6, 10:53 AMApr 6, 8:59 PM

6256

OptionProbability

YES

NO

140

63

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Jul 25, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.6%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will the actor currently playing Flo in Progessive insurance ads retire before January 1 2034?

Nov 26, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.82%chance

8136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

264

126

Will at the end of 2026 dentist treatments not be covered by the statutory health insurance in Germany anymore?

Feb 2, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

Insured Mana Fund profits more than 20k Mana from 2025 to 2030?

May 1, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Nov 10, 4:12 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the US make healthcare insurance coverage not specific to insurance providers by 2050?

Mar 14, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

131

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