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Prediction markets for Insurance

2026 California Insurance Commissioner election

May 25, 3:42 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

61505

OptionProbability

Ben Allen

Jane Kim

Steven Bradford

Patrick Wolf

Stacy Korsgaden

Robert Howell

Other

50

42

2

2

2

2

1

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?

Nov 24, 12:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.16%chance

131165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1648

885

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030?

Nov 24, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.05%chance

21971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1433

601

Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Mar 21, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.87%chance

22710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

977

966

Will a large insurance company cover weight loss drugs before 2027?

Aug 3, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.76%chance

12679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

138

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Jul 25, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.6%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will the actor currently playing Flo in Progessive insurance ads retire before January 1 2034?

Nov 26, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.82%chance

8136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

264

126

Which major US health insurer will first mention tobacco harm reduction--by vaping or pouch use--in enrollee materials?

Jul 7, 11:49 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

697

OptionProbability

CVS/Aetna

Elevance

Humana

Cigna

Centene

Kaiser Permanente

United

51

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will at the end of 2026 dentist treatments not be covered by the statutory health insurance in Germany anymore?

Feb 2, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.95%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Nov 10, 4:12 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the life insurance market be disintermediated by end of 2030?

Mar 25, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.45%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

86

Will the US make healthcare insurance coverage not specific to insurance providers by 2050?

Mar 14, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

131

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