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Prediction markets for Insurance

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040?

Nov 24, 12:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.16%chance

131165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1648

885

Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030?

Nov 24, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.11%chance

21921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1383

630

Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Mar 21, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.63%chance

21695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

951

Will a large insurance company cover weight loss drugs before 2027?

Aug 3, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.76%chance

12679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

138

Who will win the 2026 CA insurance commissioner election?

Jun 5, 11:53 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

5576

OptionProbability

Jane Kim

Ben Allen

57

43

Will RISK fail to pay an insurance claim before 2028?

May 11, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.28%chance

7451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Tesla Insurance stock

Apr 6, 10:53 AMApr 6, 8:59 PM

6256

OptionProbability

YES

NO

140

63

Will the actor currently playing Flo in Progessive insurance ads retire before January 1 2034?

Nov 26, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.82%chance

8136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

264

126

Will at the end of 2026 dentist treatments not be covered by the statutory health insurance in Germany anymore?

Feb 2, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.95%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Insured Mana Fund profits more than 20k Mana from 2025 to 2030?

May 1, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will there be direct state-action that results in a reduction of HRT insurance coverage for adults before 2029 in the US

Nov 10, 4:12 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the life insurance market be disintermediated by end of 2030?

Mar 25, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.45%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

86

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