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Top stories

Toppan’s Tekscend Photomask Seeks $2 Billion Valuation in Tokyo IPO

Toppan’s Tekscend Photomask Seeks $2 Billion Valuation in Tokyo IPO

Authors

5

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Integral

If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?

May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM

2530281

OptionProbability

Above 10,000

Above 20,000

Above 50,000

Above 100,000

64

18

11

7

Will Google integrate Bitcoin Lightning payments in the Play Store by the end of 2025?

May 17, 12:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

0.47%chance

3815297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14482

69

Will Apple release a MacBook with LLM integration built in, by 2025 end?

Apr 1, 6:10 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

15%chance

507372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3047

464

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

Will Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) be integrated in common technology devices by 2025?

Jun 29, 5:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.57%chance

251824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2152

677

GTA VI will have Spotify integration for the in-game radio

Nov 20, 9:07 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

12.97%chance

211480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

763

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.63%chance

39981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

850

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

45.33%chance

20544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

557

Will "The Great Data Integration Schlep" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 14, 6:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.78%chance

7205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

405

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