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Prediction markets for Intel Products

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.55%chance

211933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

679

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?

Feb 5, 5:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.03%chance

6146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

89

When will 1%+ of processors produced in a year have a word size of 128 bits or more?

Aug 15, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4122

OptionProbability

Before 2226

Before 2176

Before 2126

Before 2076

76

72

66

59

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

Will there be chips built on glass substrate available for purchase by 2030?

Nov 16, 4:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.4%chance

223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

73

Pat Gelsinger's bet: Wavelength below 13.5nm (EUV) used in lithography before April 2036?

May 2, 10:18 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

42.37%chance

219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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