Intelligence Labs News

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.95%chance

1428966

OptionVotes

YES

3125

2071

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

184469

OptionProbability

2025-2027

2028-2030

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204387

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Philipp Markolin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.59%chance

111754

OptionVotes

YES

3053

1487

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.42%chance

91002

OptionVotes

YES

1808

553

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

1759

570

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

139

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

YES

223

191

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

122

Intelligence Labs News

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Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

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