Intelligence Labs News

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

15211730

OptionVotes

YES

7799

3854

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

YES

3092

324

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

89.45%chance

265266

OptionVotes

YES

2912

343

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.21%chance

283763

OptionVotes

YES

1653

605

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

42.5%chance

233523

OptionVotes

YES

2153

1456

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.96%chance

121088

OptionVotes

YES

1605

623

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

61081

OptionVotes

YES

1333

750

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

174

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

101

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

Oct 13, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Will any single AI lab hold the #1 position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for at least 70 consecutive days during 2027?

Will Anthropic's Q4 2027 GAAP revenue exceed OpenAI's by >20%?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI report positive GAAP operating income in any quarter of 2027?

Will a lab other than OpenAI or Anthropic lead the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for 30 consecutive days in 2027?

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Intelligence Labs News

Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

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