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Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

1418719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3323

1983

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.78%chance

258443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1987

503

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174419

OptionProbability

2025-2027

2028-2030

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

26

21

13

11

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204112

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Scott Aaronson

Matt Yglesias

Zvi Mowshowitz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Philipp Markolin

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

74

74

72

72

61

50

50

41

35

28

19

18

17

10

9

5

3

1

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.01%chance

153068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2001

500

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.62%chance

101749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3048

1488

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.42%chance

91002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1808

553

Will the "unpublished dissertations" potentially relevant to COVID origins be made public by the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.44%chance

7885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

633

16

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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