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Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.67%chance

1388307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2986

2139

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174409

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

18.99%chance

91729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3131

1468

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Will the "unpublished dissertations" potentially relevant to COVID origins be made public by the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.44%chance

7885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

633

16

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

14816

OptionProbability

Saar Wilf

Alina Chan

Yuri Deigin

Zeynep Tufecki

Nate Silver

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Kristian Andersen

Michael Worobey

Scott Alexander

74

72

66

61

60

50

50

50

50

45

38

37

34

31

31

24

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.9%chance

8652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

684

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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