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Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?

Aug 27, 11:26 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

98.62%chance

3622730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8513

118

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6410

4263

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

42.5%chance

233523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2153

1456

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

86.31%chance

193431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

398

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.01%chance

172834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.96%chance

121088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

623

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

4900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

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