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Prediction markets for Intelligence Labs

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6094

4376

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

216702

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

30

25

19

14

12

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204403

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Philipp Markolin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

76

74

72

66

61

50

45

40

33

27

14

13

10

9

8

7

3

1

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

23%chance

152257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2664

1592

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.71%chance

101022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

10291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9128

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

50

38

7

5

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

24.31%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

57

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

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